Dnk Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Where's the bottom then guys ? Looking to buy in again but guessing we are a tad off yet ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rider Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Probably Marty knows for certain. As the established prophesier of bears in the woods suggesting when its time to consider your selling position I'd have to change clothes to foretell when the bulls are coming on the horizon and its time to buy. The bull market is actually much harder to foresee as it is relatively easy to watch and tell when all the positive factors turn and have turned somewhat negative than it is to guess when the negatives are likely to turn positive. If it were me, I'd leave it at least 6 months before thinking of diving in because just about everyone is expecting a recession to hit the UK and USA in 2023. High inflation, a recessionary economy and rising interest rates will not favour crypto currencies. Its probably moving more into a hold position after the Strong Sell recommendation of a month or so ago. As one Wall Street commentator puts it, you'll never know for sure with the Tulip Market. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) Marty doesn't know I expected the 29k+ range to hold for a few months longer in all honesty. Bottoms take a while to form Dnk, there's no rush to buy back in, ideally you're looking for a capitulation type event when everything is deep in the red, you'll know it when you see it and probably be too scared to buy, that's how it works You're also looking for a meaningful level, it could be a previous all time high, could be a long time frame moving average, or a spot where btc previously spent a lot of time ranging (creating a very strong support structure). All i've got is the last two 'bottoms' were around the weekly 200ma, give or take. They also coincided with the s&p bottom, which also bottomed around the weekly 200ma. Btc touched the 200ma today, the s&p is still around 7% off. Doesn't mean this is the bottom, i think the bottom is still around 5months away if previous history is anything to go by. Btc could well blast through this level short term- we're looking for the weekly candle to close above the 200ma, price action in between is just noise. Ideal scenario, short term bottom this week/today, btc closes above the 200ma end of week and the price ranges between there and previous level (29k) for a few months with the bottom forming nov/dec time. I've marked levels of the strongest buy spots on the chart - the 200ma @ $22370, previous ath @$20kish, 786 fib @$18230 and a strong support cluster around $12k. Pick your poison. This isn't financial advice btw, i'm no technical analyst or market expert, just saying what i see There is the risk of a recession like rider says, who knows, maybe all that fear is being priced in to the markets at the moment and that's why they're all deep in the red, but maybe it gets a lot worse, something to keep in mind. Attached is a chart as per usual, green line is the moving average which btc doesn't like to spend much time under, red arrows are the areas of interest and approx time i'd expect a bottom. best advice i can give, if you're keen on diving in is to average in, you're never going to buy the bottom so the smart play is buying at important price points over time, and to only put in cash you're prepared to lose Lastly, if you make good profits, always pay yourself! I don't recommend buying alts either btw, they're all deep in a downtrend, too risky. But maybe this is the end, no more expensive tulips for us. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nnCTcT8L/ Edited June 13, 2022 by Marty (see edit history) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 8 hours ago, Marty said: Marty doesn't know I expected the 29k+ range to hold for a few months longer in all honesty. Bottoms take a while to form Dnk, there's no rush to buy back in, ideally you're looking for a capitulation type event when everything is deep in the red, you'll know it when you see it and probably be too scared to buy, that's how it works You're also looking for a meaningful level, it could be a previous all time high, could be a long time frame moving average, or a spot where btc previously spent a lot of time ranging (creating a very strong support structure). All i've got is the last two 'bottoms' were around the weekly 200ma, give or take. They also coincided with the s&p bottom, which also bottomed around the weekly 200ma. Btc touched the 200ma today, the s&p is still around 7% off. Doesn't mean this is the bottom, i think the bottom is still around 5months away if previous history is anything to go by. Btc could well blast through this level short term- we're looking for the weekly candle to close above the 200ma, price action in between is just noise. Ideal scenario, short term bottom this week/today, btc closes above the 200ma end of week and the price ranges between there and previous level (29k) for a few months with the bottom forming nov/dec time. I've marked levels of the strongest buy spots on the chart - the 200ma @ $22370, previous ath @$20kish, 786 fib @$18230 and a strong support cluster around $12k. Pick your poison. This isn't financial advice btw, i'm no technical analyst or market expert, just saying what i see There is the risk of a recession like rider says, who knows, maybe all that fear is being priced in to the markets at the moment and that's why they're all deep in the red, but maybe it gets a lot worse, something to keep in mind. Attached is a chart as per usual, green line is the moving average which btc doesn't like to spend much time under, red arrows are the areas of interest and approx time i'd expect a bottom. best advice i can give, if you're keen on diving in is to average in, you're never going to buy the bottom so the smart play is buying at important price points over time, and to only put in cash you're prepared to lose Lastly, if you make good profits, always pay yourself! I don't recommend buying alts either btw, they're all deep in a downtrend, too risky. But maybe this is the end, no more expensive tulips for us. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nnCTcT8L/ Cheers Marty Thanks for the input and taking the time to post up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 (edited) Sorry if it was a little confusing To keep it simple. Historically, buying around the weekly 200ma has proven to be incredibly profitable, even if the price does dip below it in the short term. given we can only go off how price has acted in the past that's the only strategy we can use to pick buy spots now. Previous all time high and fib 786 are also strong spots if capitulation occurs. Basically, accumulating spot btc between $22.4k and $18.3k would be the ideal play. That's what i'm doing, same with traders i know. If you happen to watch capitulation happen (-10%+) hourly candle on btc, buying popular alts, sol for example, is a strong move, but sell them within a day or two, should net you returns of +50%. We are looking for a v shape recovery from btc. Get your stop loss in profit as soon as you can and keep bringing it up as the price appreciates, don't keep the stop too tight as there will be volatility. Eventually your stop will get hit as the price tops and comes back down, but it should turn out to be a good trade. I expect the top of the bounce to be $30k+ and trade time to be a month or two. What we don't want to see is btc slowly continue to bleed out, that's bad, we need capitulation for a strong recovery. If the price spends too much time below $18.3k and doesn't recover, that's also bad, i'll cut the trade and take the loss. The reason i'm not too interested in alts overall, even though they offer higher returns, is they also offer higher losses, most alts never recover after a bear market. Just look at the popular ones from 2017. All in a all it's a really difficult trading environment at the moment, much harder than previous, because of the state of the economy. There's no shame in sitting on the sidelines until end of year in all honesty, let everything play out and preserve capital. Things could get much worse between now and then. Edited June 14, 2022 by Marty (see edit history) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 (edited) Good reaction off the lows so far, we need to retake the 4hr 50ma before we get too excited, as well as start making higher highs and higher lows, still in a downtrend as you can see. Looks like we've had a weekend alt season too, didn't expect that I'd like to see something like this over the next week or so, might even test the 4hr 50ma before a good retracement.. https://www.tradingview.com/x/L8Qp0Evj/ Edited June 20, 2022 by Marty (see edit history) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Style Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 15 hours ago, Marty said: Good reaction off the lows so far, we need to retake the 4hr 50ma before we get too excited, as well as start making higher highs and higher lows, still in a downtrend as you can see. Looks like we've had a weekend alt season too, didn't expect that I'd like to see something like this over the next week or so, might even test the 4hr 50ma before a good retracement.. https://www.tradingview.com/x/L8Qp0Evj/ Giving the 4hr 50 a test now so let's see. I've been liking the higher highs and lows that have been built on the smaller timeframes, even though anything down to that degree is just noise/mumbo jumbo to me 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 (edited) Same Well we are above the daily 50ma, back above the weekly 200ma and monthly 50ma. Making higher highs and higher lows on the daily. I don't see any reason to cut positions for the time being, easy invalidation now - a lower high/low or a break and close below one of the important ma's. A daily close below $22.6 is a good stop loss area (lower low). Not the point to fomo back in either though, poor risk reward now. Chart looks to be printing a bear flag, which would line up with my assumption that this is a midterm rally/ dead cat and we'll resume the bear market within the next few months. Still eyeing EOY for final capitulation, whether that is a equal low, higher low, or more towards $12kish, who knows, we'll have to just see how things pan out. Looking for previous support (29k ish) or daily 200ma, as top, but again, lets just see how things go. None of this is financial advice btw https://www.tradingview.com/x/cnjbz2I3/ Edited August 11, 2022 by Marty (see edit history) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Style Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Agreed I’ve seen a lot of people shouting the bottom is in and, to be fair, a good few indicators have flashed but I don’t think the lows we saw resembled a market cycle bottom. No large capitulation being the main thing it was missing for me. ETH has been pretty surprising as of late to be honest too. With the merge pencilled in for the middle of September now, it’s been on one hell of a rally. It’s reached some major resistance points now at the 20wk MA with the 200 day also not far away at ~2300. So let’s see if it can continue. I would like to think BTC’s continued rally will help it through but September might mark a “bit the rumour, sell the news” kind of event for ETH 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Style Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 So the ETH merge successfully completed yesterday with what seems like zero issues as it moves from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Probably one of, if not, the biggest milestone in the entire asset class since the inception of BTC and what happens? ETH down 11% I wasn't betting on anything happening as everything tends to be "buy the rumour, sell the news" but it goes a little way towards showing the absolute state of the economic climate right now. The US CPI report came in worse than expected and interest rates are going to get another hike very shortly. You can see investors are trying to time the bottom and then being scared off again when these figures are released. It's certainly looking like we're aiming for at least the end of year (Nov/Dec) for some sort of bottom to hopefully be carved out, just in line with previous cycles. But this could easily drag into 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Dogecoin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wez Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Dnk said: Dogecoin Wonder if its anything to do with Musk taking over twitter, he has been behind a few of the DOGE rallys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rider Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 It's got to be moving from a hold towards a soft buy, the current pricing is still quite a bit over the possible floor price of around $16k for BC with the basement price being zero. Bitcoin Price Predictions There are a handful of Bitcoin price predictions made for the mid to long term, or with no time scale at all, that are still standing today. Here are some of the most exciting predictions from Bitcoin’s most legendary evangelists. Shervin Pishevar – $100,000 (by 2022) @shervin Shervin Pishevar is a venture capitalist and angel investor who co-founded Hyperloop One and Sherpa Capital. He has also made investments in several companies including big names such as AirBnb and Uber. Pishevar has called for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 via Twitter. The prediction came not long after a December 2020 meeting with MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, whose company invested more than $1 billion in Bitcoin during 2020. Given his meeting with Saylor and his previous predictions of a decline in the US economy, it’s no surprise that Pishevar has become bullish on Bitcoin. Thomas Fitzpatrick – $318,000 (by 2022) Thomas Fitzpatrick Citibank’s Thomas Fitzpatrick is the global head of their market insights product, CitiFX Technicals. He made headlines for his Bitcoin prediction of $318,000 by 2022, which surfaced after his report was leaked onto the internet in late 2020. His analysis drew similarities between the gold market of the 1970s and Bitcoin’s price action, in particular gold’s $20 to $35 range before its surge in 1971. He also cited the acceleration in money-printing by central banks since the emergence of COVID-19, which may fuel the Bitcoin run. Winklevoss Twins – $500,000 (by 2030) @tylerwinklevoss Winklevoss twins – the famous Bitcoin billionaires have said Bitcoin has the potential to reach a price of $500,000 by 2030, which would put its market cap on par with that of gold (around $9 trillion). Tyler Winklevoss said, “Our thesis is that bitcoin is gold 2.0, that it will disrupt gold, and if it does that, it has to have a market cap of 9 trillion, so we think it could price one day at $US500,000 of bitcoin.” The prediction has been explained in full detail in a blog post by Tyler on their website. Anthony Pompliano – $250,000 (by 2022) @APompliano Anthony Pompliano is a well-known Bitcoin personality. He’s a founder and partner at Morgan Creek Digital, a crypto-friendly asset management firm for institutional investors. He has previously claimed that he holds more than 50% of his net worth in Bitcoin, showing his belief in the cryptocurrency. Pompliano previously predicted that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of December 2021. Since then, he has revised the figure to an upper limit of $250,000 – more than double his original prediction. Why the updated number? Pompalino believes the available supply of Bitcoin is much less than is perceived by most, which lies in stark contrast to the amount of demand that is beginning to precipitate – in particular by institutions. Along with many others, Pomp also talks about the US Federal Reserve pursuing aggressive quantitative easing and keeping interest rates low, leading to flight to safe-haven assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 It's a very interesting phenomenon for sure. Bitcoin a technical block chain proof of work etc crypto -promoted as Digital Gold Dogecoin, a meme coin created by a guy in a lunchtime apparently for a semi joke? and loads in between, a whole melting pot of innovation, speculation, altruism from some, outright robbery from others. Were a coins merits are hard to decipher and even if you can it doesn't mean they'll perform better for you. The predictions were obviously wrong but the timeline of predictions are notorious for that, and they'll simply say they'll get there one day it's just going to take longer, while others think most are destined to go to zero. Higher price predictions were common for lots of assets these last couple of years, the FED tightening seems to have null and voided all of them!? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Lots green today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Style Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 On 11/4/2022 at 11:42 PM, Dnk said: Lots green today And it’s suspicious to say the least… Inflation is still coming in too hot, especially core inflation in the US which drives the world markets. The DXY (dollar index) is still in its crazy uptrend, traditional markets haven’t really followed suit with crypto and the American FED has warned that there is a lot of pain yet to come. To me, something stinks and I can’t see this lasting too long. The only positive news I’ve seen that could be causing this rally is rumours of China opening its borders again around Jan-March time and a lot of crypto is held there (plus the Shanghai markets have been green to a similar tune as BTC). The idea of a mid-term election rally in the US is also there I guess. But overall, I still see things trending down and possibly swooping to new lows. With that being said, ETH is looking quite good and if it can close Sunday above $1613 at the 21wk EMA, it’s in good shape. I’m just very apprehensive about this being short lived, the global economy is still in absolute tatters and risk on assets have no business rallying just now imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 I see Carvana has jumped off a cliff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Just got to love the volatility of crypto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Not Crypto but anyone else trading Tesla or looking too ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 £20k in cash. Where should I put it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike2JZ Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, Noz said: £20k in cash. Where should I put it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Style Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, Noz said: £20k in cash. Where should I put it? An account where it'll earn interest. You'd be trying to catch a falling knife right now investing in stocks or crypto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Style said: An account where it'll earn interest. You'd be trying to catch a falling knife right now investing in stocks or crypto No fun in that though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 32 minutes ago, Mike2JZ said: Can't I just invest in you building me a new block instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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