Europe

[imi]

JC would be out of his depth at a decent grammar school debating society meeting I'm afraid. Fortunately he's highly unlikely to get to a level where he can be more than a mild embarrassment to the UK.

 

[formatzero]

Was just thinking, if the remain camp are correct and we will be in recession for at least another two years ,there will be no jobs, we will be a complete basket case,interest rates will rise,this may solve the economic migrant crisis in one fell swoop,nobody will want to come here

[Chris Wilson]

I have been bleating on for months about how our (the UK and the EU) sending of ships and naval personnel to the Med ostensibly to "deter" people smugglers and migrants crossing over into Europe has become a free dial a ride ferry service. Finally, yesterday this scandal made the daily papers.

 

 

Today we have our coastguards rescuing nearly twenty illegal migrants from the Channel, attempting a crossing in a rubber dinghy. There are regular reports of smugglers using small and medium sized craft to illegally land migrants on our shores. Is this going to become a new trend and how should it be tackled if it escalates?

[Pete]

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/18A5/production/_89790360_b21dbff6-28b5-40f1-bb58-51ecc33d52ab.jpg

Greece bailout: Eurozone deal unlocks €10.3bn

Sensationalising the headlines Imi? These are loans from creditors/IMF. Not a hand out. You may note that "The IMF considers debt relief essential, but Germany in particular was opposed."

Greece needs all the help it can get. Although I still feel it might have worked out better for me and kinder on the people if they'd defaulted at the start.

As it is, they're bound to the EU - so this is why I want to remain, and for the EU to succeed.

 

I do not plan on spending my twilight years in the UK, so anything that helps that plan is good.

 

Just read this which offered some slightly different views:

Here are a few probably outcomes of a post-Britain EU

 

1. Russia will become bolder and will economically try to destabilise the East European EU members which will inevitably bring about political change and potentially a further members leaving the EU.

2. The remaining founding members of the EU will rally around each other in order to preserve the EU at all costs including letting the weaker member adrift.

3. The UK, as we now know it, will cease to exist as Scotland and potentially N. Ireland shall leave the Union. The EU will make sure Scotland and a reunited Ireland can survive economically.

4. The economic fallout of BREXIT will impact whatever is left of the UK and its economy for a very long time. The most likely outcome will be Brits will become the new economic immigrants in the EU and beyond.

5. European radicals, although not intended, in their quest to destroy the EU will cause chaos which could lead to war in certain parts of Europe.

 

Interested to see how you'll shout down this one:

 

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3739/Economists-Views-on-Brexit.aspx

Of the 639 economists who responded:

72% thought it the most likely outcome would be a negative impact on UK real GDP over the next 10 to 20 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. This compares with 11% who thought that a positive impact on real GDP would be the most likely outcome.

88% thought it most likely that real GDP would be negatively impacted in the next 5 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. 4% thought GDP would be positively impacted over the same time period and the 7% thought GDP would be broadly unaffected.

[Annabella]

We know in the short term that things aren't good either way, its the long game that we need to take control of. Output has already gone negative again with the measures this government is using before we leave/stay in the eu so predicting that GDP will take a knock isn't terribly tricky is it? It's downright supposition that 'it'll be worse' as I say output was already down last quarter.

Russia becoming bolder? They annexed Crimea and super strong Europe said naughty naughty very naughty. Very strong.

Rally around and kick the weaker members? Erm Greece? They should have been kicked in the first place, as they never met the criteria for membership, and for the Greek people it was better to leave.

Since when will Scotland and N Ireland leave the UK and be formed into EU? Scotland was told in no uncertain terms that they would NOT be entered into the EU at the last vote.

The economic fallout is and has already been happening within the EU, we cannot save our steel/car industries as we were not allowed to governement subsidise them as that is against EU rules, so hey guess what our car and steel industries alone have been decimated.

War? Already has, Ukraine? As for further war you've been listening to Cameron's desperate cries.

 

See this is what worries me, supposition and lies are blinkering people into thinking the status quo is better.

[formatzero]

There is no concrete evidence,that if asked on independence again Scotland would vote to leave the U.K .

[Chris Wilson]

Are these the same economists who firstly thought it a good idea to allow a corrupt country like Greece, where tax paying was a hobby, not a necessity, and the same ones who kept quiet as every sign of Greece's implosion stared them in the face? I don't trust them, I don't believe them, and anyway, whatever the price within reason, anything that helps stem the biggest threat to European cohesion (the migrant crisis) is probably worth paying. We've got bloody Albanians trying to sail into Dover now, on rubber rafts, for God's sake Can't the navy borrow some canon balls from someone?

[Wez]

[Pete]

Are these the same economists who firstly thought it a good idea to allow a corrupt country like Greece,

No. That was a Goldman Sacchs backhanded deal. They are crooks. The Greek ministers that swallowed millions themselves are crooks. The Greeks should never have been accepted in the EU as they had no proper structure or Tax system. Unfortunately they are there now.

[Pete]

We know in the short term that things aren't good either way, its the long game that we need to take control of.

Yeah? How long is that then?

Long enough that my businesses fail because they rely on other businesses to have money or rely on well off people having a lot of disposable income? But that's OK because I can sit at home claiming dole money like everyone else whilst waiting for us to return to the glory days.

[j_jza80]

No. That was a Goldman Sacchs backhanded deal. They are crooks. The Greek ministers that swallowed millions themselves are crooks. The Greeks should never have been accepted in the EU as they had no proper structure or Tax system. Unfortunately they are there now.

 

And coincidentally, they are bankrolling remain to the tune of £500,000.

 

Why do you think that might be? I doubt it's out of the goodness of their hearts.

[Pete]

And coincidentally, they are bankrolling remain to the tune of £500,000.

 

I don't understand what you mean dude?

 

Half a mill is nothing in this game.

[j_jza80]

Why are Goldman Sachs, a group that, as you put it, "are crooks", funding the remain campaign in the referendum?

[Pete]

Why are Goldman Sachs, a group that, as you put it, "are crooks", funding the remain campaign in the referendum?

Because they'll do anything that's in their interest.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-debt-crisis-goldman-sachs-could-be-sued-for-helping-country-hide-debts-when-it-joined-euro-10381926.html

Goldman Sachs is said to have made as much as $500m from the transactions known as “swaps”.

Like I said, half a mill is pennies to this bunch.

They falsified key financials required to join the EU. Greece was not ready and the people are suffering thanks to the greed of the elite. Now I hear on TV how people think we should "cut Greece loose" and the EU "shouldn't be helping them out." Maybe we deserve our independence and pain for the financial sector.

[Al Massey]

Because they'll do anything that's in their interest.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-debt-crisis-goldman-sachs-could-be-sued-for-helping-country-hide-debts-when-it-joined-euro-10381926.html

 

Like I said, half a mill is pennies to this bunch.

They falsified key financials required to join the EU. Greece was not ready and the people are suffering thanks to the greed of the elite. Now I hear on TV how people think we should "cut Greece loose" and the EU "shouldn't be helping them out." Maybe we deserve our independence and pain for the financial sector.

 

Exactly, it's in their interest and other global corporations for us to remain.

Which clearly shows that it isn't worth being in for anyone else except the elitists and super rich.

 

 

 

[Chris Wilson]

Whilst a very staunch supporter of leaving the EU I take comfort in the thought that even if the vote goes to the Remain voters the EU will probably fall apart under the weight of the totally unprecedented migrant crisis within a couple of years. It's a scenario we would be much better off observing from the sidelines, but at least this failed Liberal experiment will soon be shown for what it has become, a haemorrhaging disaster that's out of control due to changing goal posts, huge egos, massive over spending and waste, and the natural tribalism of its member states. It should have remained as the original Common Market concept.

[Pete]

Exactly, it's in their interest and other global corporations for us to remain.

Which clearly shows that it isn't worth being in for anyone else except the elitists and super rich.

Clearly?

Just because it's in their interest doesn't mean it's not in mine too.

[Pete]

Whilst a very staunch supporter of leaving the EU I take comfort in the thought that even if the vote goes to the Remain voters the EU will probably fall apart under the weight of the totally unprecedented migrant crisis within a couple of years. It's a scenario we would be much better off observing from the sidelines, but at least this failed Liberal experiment will soon be shown for what it has become, a haemorrhaging disaster that's out of control due to changing goal posts, huge egos, massive over spending and waste, and the natural tribalism of its member states. It should have remained as the original Common Market concept.

Like you suggest, the EU may well collapse anyway.

At least we won't be to blame.

[Dnk]

If the EU collapses it will only have itself to blame

[Chris Wilson]

Yes, I can't see why the UK population voting to leave the EU could be blamed for its collapse. Surely the EU needs to look inwardy as to *WHY* member states are dissatisfied with what membership is offering them? They have had plenty of time and opportunity in fact Juncker himself very recently stated they had gone too far with attempts at control of member states.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-juncker-idUSKCN0XG2MU

[johnny g]

I don't understand why we are desperate to shackle ourselves to the worst performing large economy in the developed world, one that bangs on about trade agreements yet has failed to negotiate a trade agreement with China and the US. The US, remember is the one that we'll be at the back of the queue to negotiate a trade deal with (if you listen to Obama, Trump is a different matter). Well, the EU has been at the front of the queue for 10 years and where are we? In that time have we failed to trade with the US.

 

So the EU might not be so keen to trade with us on decent terms afterwards, well considering that we are by far a net importer from them, I'm not sure why. We are the second biggest market for the German car industry in the world. Can't see them (the Germans that is) making that too difficult for us.

 

With free movement of labour, we encourage people to migrate to where the grass is greener and with the second strongest economy in Europe and the fifth largest in the world, it is stronger here than nearly everywhere else in Europe. 450 million people can come here if they choose and we have no power to stop them, yet we still have to house, educate and treat them if they are ill. We have to send child support to their children wherever they live. They will keep coming so long as the grass is greener until our public services are overstretched at which point the grass will end up less green until the standard of living is the same across Europe. Since it started off better here, it can only go downwards to meet the average, meaning we lose out.

 

But, my biggest concern is Turkey.

 

Watch Nigel Farage's speech in the EU parliament about Turkey joining. It sums up the position far better than I could. 75 million people in a country, that is over 90% outside of the geographical boundary of Europe, where 8% of people openly support Isis, that allows passage of Isis through its borders and unofficially buys Isis oil and where the GDP is less than half that of the lowest GDP of any current European state. Yet their membership into the EU is being fast tracked and we are already allowing open visas into Europe for Turkish nationals.

 

If I'm declared a xenophobe for my view, then so be it.

[Wez]

Interesting EU poll result from a popular website

 

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/31-05-2016/how-will-you-be-voting-in-the-eu-referendum-or-are-you-a-39dont-know39

[Angarak]

I see our exports to EU members has been shrinking over the last decade. We now export more outside of the EU than within it.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/673585/British-trade-exports-EU-European-Union-lower-before-single-market-UK

 

I've also not seen one major company (or any company for that matter) come out and say they will quit the UK if we leave the EU which raises the question as to how accurate the 'eu funded' forecasts of doom and gloom are. It would appear that the opposite could happen.

 

Take the $830 billion Norwegian sovereign fund for example, they might invest more AFTER Brexit:

 

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/03/10/norways-830-billion-wealth-fund-to-invest-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit/

 

Avon has just announced it is setting up its global HQ in the UK so it's not worried about Brexit.

 

Neither are 73% of Chief Financial Officers who say Brexit will not affect their UK investment decisions:

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/14/brexit-wont-hurt-our-trade-with-uk-global-cfos.html

 

Are the big boys in the city really as concerned as the media makes out?

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12157846/UK-would-be-a-better-place-if-it-left-the-European-Union-claims-one-of-Londons-biggest-hedge-funds.html.

 

Of course no one knows what could happen if we leave. I dont believe we're going to become isolated, I dont believe it will be harder for qualified EU/UK citizens to move around Europe - its in no-ones interest to make it that way.

 

We do however know of some things that will negatively effect us if we stay in (increased national debt, strangled industries, power grabs, increased net migration, housing shortage, lower educational achievement, public service strain, etc)

 

 

[Wez]

I see now that the powers at be are saying us leaving the EU would cause shock waves through the global economy, hows that so if we are so small and insignificant, you cant have it both ways

[j_jza80]

If there are shortwaves, that is purely because of globalisation and economic speculation, not British democracy

 

That Money Saving Expert poll is very promising, you would imagine that site would be fairly neutral, although it is probably, predominantly populated by 25+ year old males, who are the most likely group to support Brexit.