j_jza80 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 It's still a gamble. It's extremely unlikely any other party could have an outright majority, but there is a small risk that a combination of Labour, Lib Dem and UKIP could potentially steal enough Tory votes in enough areas to cause a hung parliament, with either a coalition or minority government, which would be a disaster at the moment. The well oiled Tory / Lynton Crosby propaganda machine is going to maul Corbyn though, so a large Tory majority is still by far the most likely outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwilkinson Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 It's still a gamble. It's extremely unlikely any other party could have an outright majority, but there is a small risk that a combination of Labour, Lib Dem and UKIP could potentially steal enough Tory votes in enough areas to cause a hung parliament, with either a coalition or minority government, which would be a disaster at the moment. The well oiled Tory / Lynton Crosby propaganda machine is going to maul Corbyn though, so a large Tory majority is still by far the most likely outcome. Yeah, with you on this. Big gamble. Likely it's a well reasoned one but Lib Dems will likely surge as the alternative to (Conservatives) Brexit. This vote is all about Brexit and therefore traditional political loyalties and alliances look set to have a significant shake up. I just hope it pans out. I don't think UKIP will gain. I can see many of their votes shifting to the Tories. UKIP have done there bit for the Brexit train and the Tories are the ones to take us through it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marbleapple Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 I think it a very clever move. May has problems with Nicola in Scotland and the people in Parliament moaning about her approach to Brexit. By calling the vote hopefully she can flatten those in Parliament making Brexit less complicated. At the same time those in Scotland that don't support Nicolas independence route will be attracted to the Conservative let's stay together party line this weakening the SNP. Personally I'd just love to be rid of Corbyn and Nicola who I can't stand (and that's despite previously being a labour supporter!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwilkinson Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 I think it a very clever move. May has problems with Nicola in Scotland and the people in Parliament moaning about her approach to Brexit. By calling the vote hopefully she can flatten those in Parliament making Brexit less complicated. At the same time those in Scotland that don't support Nicolas independence route will be attracted to the Conservative let's stay together party line this weakening the SNP. Personally I'd just love to be rid of Corbyn and Nicola who I can't stand (and that's despite previously being a labour supporter!) I had considered the whole Scotland thing too. That poisoned dwarf annoys the hell out of me. I enjoyed watching her take a grilling about the fact that since the SNP have been leading the Scottish parliament their growth has slowed and that as of next quarter they will officially be in a recession, unlike the rest of the UK. Again I hope it's a gamble that pays off. It would be great to see a reduction in SNP MPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marbleapple Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 That poisoned dwarf. That made me chuckle. Might adopt that name for her myself. What I don't understand is how, if Scotland have voted for unity, she can continue to push the point and seek a revote. If the country has spoken and she has been chosen to represent that country how then can she be said to be acting for Scotland by going against the majority's wishes. It strikes me she isn't doing her job properly. Perhaps it's just not me understanding Scottish politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formatzero Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 She gives the reason for another referendum to be that Scotland voted to remain in Europe,however if we had voted for Independence in 2014 we would have been out of Europe anyway.!! Not just you that doesn't understand our politics:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Wilson Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 I am working hard on some electronic TV filters at the moment. Have potential orders for loads of TF, NS and DA types Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Wilson Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Looks like our PM is about to lay her cards firmly on the table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted April 20, 2017 Author Share Posted April 20, 2017 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Wilson Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119 This made me smile this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted April 20, 2017 Author Share Posted April 20, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wez Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Should we start a new GE thread with a poll for the parties, be interesting to see if the Tories really do take it with the ease everyone is predicting, I am not so sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Massey Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 This made me smile this morning But that's a drill :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted April 20, 2017 Author Share Posted April 20, 2017 But that's a drill :/ Hammer drill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Wilson Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 But that's a drill :/ I never said the guy was bright..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j_jza80 Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Should we start a new GE thread with a poll for the parties, be interesting to see if the Tories really do take it with the ease everyone is predicting, I am not so sure. It's going to be interesting, that's for sure. I think one of the key factors will be what happens to the 4 million UKIP voters (more voted UKIP at the last general election than the Lib Dems and SNP combined). If Farage doesn't campaign for UKIP, I would expect most of those voters to jump ship, probably in the direction of the Tories. Also expect the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens to pick up a lot of disenfranchised labour voters. - - - Updated - - - But that's a drill :/ Perfect metaphor for Corbyns leadership; the wrong tool in the wrong job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wez Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 How about UKIP taking a step back from this one and asking their voters to back the Tories, likely never happen but would make things interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j_jza80 Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 There's a train of thought that Theresa May will actually use an Election win to soften Brexit, as a large majority will lessen the influence of the backbenchers. So the threat of UKIP is still useful. I still think this is going to result in some sort of betrayal of the referendum result, and that we will still have freedom of movement in all but name. But at least out of the EU, we can elect a go ernment in the future who can change that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Wilson Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 There's a train of thought that Theresa May will actually use an Election win to soften Brexit, as a large majority will lessen the influence of the backbenchers. So the threat of UKIP is still useful. I still think this is going to result in some sort of betrayal of the referendum result, and that we will still have freedom of movement in all but name. But at least out of the EU, we can elect a go ernment in the future who can change that. Quite, I am with you there, sounds likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilp9876 Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Why don't the Lib Dems say they will reverse the Brexit referendum if they get into power? In theory they would pick up 48% of the total vote and probably grab much of Scotland as well. At the very least they will get a lot more votes than they are going to get now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annabella Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Why don't the Lib Dems say they will reverse the Brexit referendum if they get into power? In theory they would pick up 48% of the total vote and probably grab much of Scotland as well. At the very least they will get a lot more votes than they are going to get now! Because that would breach the Constitution, the vote is done, legal, article 50 has been triggered, there is no going back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j_jza80 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Because that would breach the Constitution, the vote is done, legal, article 50 has been triggered, there is no going back. We don't have a written constitution, just acts of parliament which can be revoked or put to another vote. The EU would support cancelling our triggering of article 50, so we're in the hands of the politicians, unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j_jza80 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Why don't the Lib Dems say they will reverse the Brexit referendum if they get into power? In theory they would pick up 48% of the total vote and probably grab much of Scotland as well. At the very least they will get a lot more votes than they are going to get now! Maybe, but remember we have a 'first past the post' system, and in the referendum, the vast majority of Constituencies voted to leave the EU. In the last general election, UKIP had 1 MP from 4m votes, the Lib Dems had 8 from 1.5m, so translating votes into seats can be extremely difficult for an incumbent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annabella Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 We don't have a written constitution, just acts of parliament which can be revoked or put to another vote. The EU would support cancelling our triggering of article 50, so we're in the hands of the politicians, unfortunately. True, acts of parliament need changing in law though? I'd like to see a party try and change the 'leaving of europe' now and the consequences. The EU would make an example out of us like a naughty child if we were to revoke the invoked! Doesn't bear thinking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 The EU would make an example out of us like a naughty child if we were to revoke the invoked! Doesn't bear thinking about. Nonsense. They want to spank us for leaving, they'd welcome us back with welcome arms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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