IEA warns of $200 per barrel (Interesting Read)

[Brazil]

IEA warns of $200 oil

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil prices to bust the $200 a barrel barrier by 2035.

 

Staff & news wires 09 November 2010 11:06 GMT

 

In its 2010 World Energy Outlook, published today, the IEA raised its mid- and long-term oil price forecast, despite slashing oil demand growth estimates by 2035, citing growing supply uncertainty.

 

Oil prices would rise even further if governments did not take significant steps, IEA's chief economist and author of the report, Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview.

 

"The message is clear, the price will go up, especially if consuming countries do not make changes in the way they consume oil, especially in the transport sector," Birol said.

 

He said the world needed higher oil prices to substantially change consuming habits and spur investment as markets were becoming less sensitive to price changes.

 

The IEA said the growing concentration of oil use in transport and a shift of demand towards subsidised markets were limiting the scope for higher prices to choke off demand through a switch to alternative fuels.

 

"If subsidy policy does not change, with increasing price assumptions, these $312 billion in subsidies for 2009 will reach $600 billion in 2015. That's huge," Birol told the news agency.

 

Despite the price increase, the IEA said it saw primary energy demand increasing at a slower pace if governments followed through with policies and measures that have been set.

 

“We have taken governments at their word in assuming that they will actually implement the policies and measures, albeit in a cautious manner, to ensure that the goals they have set are met,” the IEA's head Nobuo Tanaka said.

 

In that scenario, world primary energy demand increases by 36% between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2% per year on average, slower than the 2% per year average growth over the previous 27-year period, it said.

 

All of the net growth is expected to come from non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD) countries, almost half from China alone. Demand in the OECD actually falls, by over 6 million barrels per day.

 

Meanwhile, oil output will reach an undulating plateau of just under 69 million bpd by 2020, while production of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil – notably Canadian oil sands – is set to grow strongly.

 

Opec countries account for a growing share of global production, with the biggest increases coming from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

 

Production in and exports of oil (and gas) from the Caspian region is also expected to grow substantially.

 

Published: 09 November 2010 11:06 GMT | Last updated: 10 November 2010 04:07 GMT

[Gaz6002]

Where is this from?

[Snooze]

This has been obviously on the cards for some time now. I think we'll be looking at £2/L at pumps in the near future.

 

No great sheikhs. (tyvm! )

[Gaz6002]

TBH, oil prices have to go up if we're going to stop countries like China using so much of it. I don't see what the big deal is really, it's obvious the world can't go on using oil they way we've got used to.

[Brazil]

Where is this from?

 

My Dad sent it to me, 'Retired Africa VP for Halliburton' (There are going to be many more Oil Wars/Civil War in the future if this is the case)

 

Waiting for him to reply.

[Attero]

£1.24/pl as I am paying... is actually cheap. We will only wish for that price in the future.

 

The thing I'm worried about is the fact that we are going to have to convert to electric/hydrogen and that means no shifting. Driving will become boring. Think I'll move onto flying planes.

[Gaz6002]

£1.24/pl as I am paying... is actually cheap. We will only wish for that price in the future.

 

The thing I'm worried about is the fact that we are going to have to convert to electric/hydrogen and that means no shifting. Driving will become boring. Think I'll move onto flying planes.

 

Electric cars aren't as boring as you think

[jagman]

The head of Total oil has predicted the same $200 / barrel but within the next 2 years - I go with that as a more accurate prediction .

Electric cars will be faster -They have no torque restriction !!!- a lot faster!!

[Snooze]

The way I see it playing out is a big shift over to electric cars. Unfortunately, China already dominates the raw materials needed to build the things, but powering them is more interesting:

 

I forsee a renewed interest in nuclear power plants. I believe the main reason that the US have tried/are trying to crack down on Iranian (and other countrys') uranium refinement is all about monopolising nuclear power generation - nothing to do with supposed weapons development. All the evidence that was found of uranium enrichment in Iran was for low-enriched uranium (only suitable for power plants).

[jagman]

The way I see it playing out is a big shift over to electric cars. Unfortunately, China already dominates the raw materials needed to build the things, but powering them is more interesting:

 

I forsee a renewed interest in nuclear power plants. I believe the main reason that the US have tried/are trying to crack down on Iranian (and other countrys') uranium refinement is all about monopolising nuclear power generation - nothing to do with supposed weapons development. All the evidence that was found of uranium enrichment in Iran was for low-enriched uranium (only suitable for power plants).

 

Electric cars still require huge amounts of oil to make them , power can be and probably will be hydrogen cell , these currently and probably will use Platinum , the use of battery cells be it lithium or otherwise is a non starter-

Power generation is far less of an issue ,its all the other uses of oil that we cannot substitute (just about everything!!!( 80% of everything in your home is oil derived )

Copper is likely to also become an issue , everyone assumes that we can forever keep digging huge holes in the ground and there is an everlasting supply -er no

Most future predictions are crap , the assumptions made are flawed ... a bit like costing the Millenium dome , it starts out at £4.99 -LOL .. or the M25 traffic loads... or ,or ,,,

[Gaz6002]

Electric cars still require huge amounts of oil to make them , power can be and probably will be hydrogen cell , these currently and probably will use Platinum , the use of battery cells be it lithium or otherwise is a non starter-

Power generation is far less of an issue ,its all the other uses of oil that we cannot substitute (just about everything!!!( 80% of everything in your home is oil derived )

Copper is likely to also become an issue , everyone assumes that we can forever keep digging huge holes in the ground and there is an everlasting supply -er no

Most future predictions are crap , the assumptions made are flawed ... a bit like costing the Millenium dome , it starts out at £4.99 -LOL .. or the M25 traffic loads... or ,or ,,,

 

Electric cars are already a reality though, so that will be the short term power of choice. Granted it doesn't solve the oil issue yet, but that's the next 'thing' for motoring.

[Max Headroom]

When the oil runs out what they going to use to make all the plastic bits?

[Snooze]

The conversion of waste plastics back into crude oil is going to become a valuable industry.