Odds on winning the Lotto with 2 tickets

[Scott]

Indeed. I think that was part of the problem of this thread: people were using odds, chances, and probability interchangeably.

 

1 in 7 million is the probability of winning the jackpot with 2 dissimilar tickets, whereas 2 : 13,999,998 are the odds of winning it (assuming there are exactly 14 million combinations, which I know isn't quite right but let's assume there are).

 

 

Nooooooo

 

As I said when I replied to Martin, that is the very simple way of explaining probability.

 

The odds are 14:2, the ':' denotes a ratio. Ratio's can always be downsized to the lowest common denominator... in this case 7:1.

 

The odds are definitely (approx as the figure isn't 7 million) 7 million to 1.

 

The probability severely increases the difficulty of the problem. If you want to work out the likely most probable numbers you would need the statistics of the amount of times each number has been drawn. From this alone you can see the probability of one set of numbers being drawn would be completely different from another set of numbers being drawn.

 

Take it as a single draw. The odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 being drawn is exactly the same as the odds of 2,5,4,3,1,6 being drawn etc etc. The simple probability equation says the same thing but the actual probability is far different. Probability is something you are taught at school, the simple version. The further you take your maths the further you dive into probability equations and factors. The stuff I was being shown was WAY over my head.

 

For this argument the probability and the odds work out 1 different from each other. Probability has the chance in the equation, odds do not.

[jackso11]

If you keep on halving things, you'll never reach zero.

 

The odds of winning with 22 tickets are 1 in 538461 (14m over 22).

 

That is the point I am making. You can't halve the number to get the new odds. You don't need odds of 1 in 0 to win, you need 1 in 1, so you just need a number less than one to winn all the time.

 

But as I said, that calculation in wrong anyway.

[jackso11]

So, from all this discussion have we worked out the winning numbers for friday yet?

[tbourner]

1,2,3,4,5,6.

[Gaz6002]

So, from all this discussion have we worked out the winning numbers for friday yet?

 

I think Charlotte said it was six.

[Matt H]

That is the point I am making. You can't halve the number to get the new odds. You don't need odds of 1 in 0 to win, you need 1 in 1, so you just need a number less than one to winn all the time.

 

But as I said, that calculation in wrong anyway.

 

It's not about halving, it's about dividing.

[Matt H]

Amazing. You would thought I had wrote exactly that explanation yesterday.

 

Nice to know you needed it explained to you as you didn't have a proper understanding.... only to come back and use the same explanation as if it was yours

 

Sorry Scott, I don't usually read much of what you post. You may have missed the point about playing Devil's advocate. I know full well how the odds of the lotto work, which is why I posted this thread up and to see what bites could be obtained (In the same manner if I had originally posted the plane and the treadmill - I would have done it in the same way).

 

I think you give yourself way too much credit if you think I'd ever plagiarise something written by you! brilliant!

[Supralad]

No, your chances with 2 tickets are not 1 in 13999999 - you haven't got it.

 

 

 

Why?

 

 

 

Why 7 numbers? You need to match 6 numbers to get the jackpot. The bonus is not part of the jackpot? When have you ever recieved a lotto ticket with 7 numbers on it?

 

 

 

 

The lottery is bogus?

 

Someone wins it, there are hundreds of millionaires in this country simply due to the lottery.

 

Only ever done the lottery once, thought it was 7 numbers.. but there u go.

 

The lottery just comes across as an additional tax in my eyes and a voluntary tax at that. I pay enough in taxs thanks, i dont fancy giving more.

 

What you dont realise is that for every £1 the lottery ticket costs, around half (probably more) goes into a general fund that is controlled by.... yes thats right...... the government. So if a million people spent £1 on lottery tickets the jackpot would probably only be around £500,000. They dont tell you that do they...

 

 

Also its all very well you lot trying to work out the probability of winning...

 

... but have you worked out the probability of losing?

 

AMAZINGLY its considerably more than your chances of winning. You are a fool to do the lottery but then everyone wants the money so badly they dont see how foolish they are being. You would be better off giving your money to charity.

[stevie_b]

Nooooooo

 

As I said when I replied to Martin, that is the very simple way of explaining probability.

 

The odds are 14:2, the ':' denotes a ratio. Ratio's can always be downsized to the lowest common denominator... in this case 7:1.

 

The odds are definitely (approx as the figure isn't 7 million) 7 million to 1.

 

The probability severely increases the difficulty of the problem. If you want to work out the likely most probable numbers you would need the statistics of the amount of times each number has been drawn. From this alone you can see the probability of one set of numbers being drawn would be completely different from another set of numbers being drawn.

 

Take it as a single draw. The odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 being drawn is exactly the same as the odds of 2,5,4,3,1,6 being drawn etc etc. The simple probability equation says the same thing but the actual probability is far different. Probability is something you are taught at school, the simple version. The further you take your maths the further you dive into probability equations and factors. The stuff I was being shown was WAY over my head.

 

For this argument the probability and the odds work out 1 different from each other. Probability has the chance in the equation, odds do not.

 

I'm not sure I've come across the advanced probability calculation that you describe, so it sounds like your statistics knowledge is more hardcore than mine. I'll have a think about what you've written, I'm starting to confuse myself again. I agree that probability can get complex if you consider dependent events, but I think(!) they can be ignored for the purposes of lotto draws.

[TonytotheB]

My maths teacher said never quote a probability in any other form than a number between 0 and 1

 

(1/49)(1/48)(1/47)(1/46)(1/45)(1/44) * 6! = 1/13.7M(ish) where (6!=6x5x4x3x2x1)

 

The 6! comes from not having to get them in order, i.e. 1 number could come 1st or 5th. It is called a factorial

 

Imagine choosing 3 colours balls from 6. One way would be C1+C2+C3 but also C2+C1+C3. The number of different cominations comes from saying that there are 3 ways of picking the first call BUT THEN we only have 2 ways for the second the one final way. Hence 3 x 2 x 1 = 3! The same applies to getting 6 numbers from 49. There are 6x5x4x3x2x1 ways = 6!

 

Sorry if this has been said before. If you HAD to get them in order, remove the 6! bit and then it is in the billions

 

Then if you buy X tickets with DIFFERENT numbers, you have X/13.7M is the probability of winning the lotto. Inverse this and get the odd:1 - which my teachers would be sad about.

 

But if you buy 13.7M tickets, you could share with someone else and thus, getting a loan for the amount is false economy

 

Oh and btw (again, sorry if this has been said) the chances of winning the euromillions is

 

(1/49)(1/48)(1/47)(1/46)(1/45)*5! * (1/9)(1/8)*2! = 1/74M (ish) - woohoo

[Matt H]

You are a fool to do the lottery but then everyone wants the money so badly they dont see how foolish they are being. You would be better off giving your money to charity.

 

Why are you a fool to do the lottery? It's 1 pound a week for me - £4 a month. What is that in real terms? Not a drop in the ocean, yet that 1 pound could change your life dramatically.

[Gaz6002]

why are you a fool to do the lottery? It's 1 pound a week for me - £4 a month. What is that in real terms? Not a drop in the ocean, yet that 1 pound could change your life dramatically.

 

[Supralad]

Why are you a fool to do the lottery? It's 1 pound a week for me - £4 a month. What is that in real terms? Not a drop in the ocean, yet that 1 pound could change your life dramatically.

 

Exactly my point. You will never win. The chances to lose greatly overcome the chance to win, but people dont understand this. They just assume that £1 a week is nothing. Do £1 a week for 15 years and you will almost a grand out of pocket (off the top if my head). Half of that goes to the government.

[Matt H]

Exactly my point. You will never win. The chances to lose greatly overcome the chance to win, but people dont understand this. They just assume that £1 a week is nothing. Do £1 a week for 15 years and you will almost a grand out of pocket (off the top if my head). Half of that goes to the government.

 

You'd be £780 out of pocket. You need to put things into perspective though. That's 15 years!!! It's 1 pound - it's nothing a week. I said 4 pound to show how little it is out of a montly salary.

 

If you earn £30k p/a, you'd have earnt £450k over that 15 years. £780 next to £450k sounds nothing to me. Yet it gives that small chance of becoming uber rich.

[TonytotheB]

Exactly my point. You will never win. The chances to lose greatly overcome the chance to win, but people dont understand this. They just assume that £1 a week is nothing. Do £1 a week for 15 years and you will almost a grand out of pocket (off the top if my head). Half of that goes to the government.

 

Good way of doing lazy charity work. The lotto fund has helped loads of British clubs out. Plus, surely half doesn't go to the Government?

[Lbm]

It is of course a tax on the stupid and the greedy....and as I look around this 'ere forum, I see these kinds of people on here. That's right, me included.

[Matt H]

Good way of doing lazy charity work. The lotto fund has helped loads of British clubs out. Plus, surely half doesn't go to the Government?

 

No, ~50% goes to the prize fund and ~28% goes to the charity kitty. With all the other costs taken into consideration, you're a long shot from 50%.

 

Having said that, voluntary taxation (as Supralad says), what a brilliant way for the government to get there money in without stacking up mandatory taxes.

[jackso11]

It's not about halving, it's about dividing.

 

correct.

 

although halving is dividing, by 2.

[stevie_b]

I don't think it's silly to play the lottery. It's silly if you play with money you can't afford to lose, or if you have "win the lottery" as part of your genuine long-term financial planning. Such people do exist.

[Gaz6002]

http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/gambling.jpg

[Matt H]

I don't think it's silly to play the lottery. It's silly if you play with money you can't afford to lose, or if you have "win the lottery" as part of your genuine long-term financial planning. Such people do exist.

 

Very true.

 

I am such a person btw, winning the lottery is certainly something I am planning to do before my next birthday

[Supralad]

You'd be £780 out of pocket. You need to put things into perspective though. That's 15 years!!! It's 1 pound - it's nothing a week. I said 4 pound to show how little it is out of a montly salary.

 

If you earn £30k p/a, you'd have earnt £450k over that 15 years. £780 next to £450k sounds nothing to me. Yet it gives that small chance of becoming uber rich.

 

Well if you dont care about money and are able to just throw it away, even as little as £1 a week thats fine, but you will never win the lottery - if you do ill eat my hat

 

Personally i find it a waste of money, but everyone has a different opinion of course.

 

For e.g. my mum, both nan's and cousin have been doing the lottery for the last 30 years. They have never won. So thats 4 tickets a week £4 which is £208 a year and £6,240 over 30 years. A waste of money as i said.

[Scott]

I'm not sure I've come across the advanced probability calculation that you describe, so it sounds like your statistics knowledge is more hardcore than mine. I'll have a think about what you've written, I'm starting to confuse myself again. I agree that probability can get complex if you consider dependent events, but I think(!) they can be ignored for the purposes of lotto draws.

 

In the most simplistic fashion, the odds and the probability are different by 1. The odds are 13999999 to 1 and the probability is 1 in 14000000.

 

Odds is taken as against, probability is taken as in.

 

1 in 14000000 chances = probability

1 against 13999999 chances = odds

[tbourner]

The Lotto is twice a week anyway, so if you buy a ticket for both draws your odds become 7m to 1 multiplied by 2, giving 14m to 1 across 2 draws, each with 6 balls, so 12 balls, so 1.16m to 1, multiplied by 49, divided by (14/12)........... you still won't win OK!

[Scott]

Sorry Scott, I don't usually read much of what you post. You may have missed the point about playing Devil's advocate. I know full well how the odds of the lotto work, which is why I posted this thread up and to see what bites could be obtained (In the same manner if I had originally posted the plane and the treadmill - I would have done it in the same way).

 

I think you give yourself way too much credit if you think I'd ever plagiarise something written by you! brilliant!

 

Funnily enough this isn't the first time I have seen you write virtually a carbon copy of what I have a matter of hours/days after I have written it.

 

It's strange that you didn't come to this conclusion yesterday, or mention your findings when you were explaining how you understood it. It's also strange that you decided to edit your first post, to make it sound like you were playing devils advocate after you had your side of the argument confirmed. Of course only the mods will be able to check that for sure.

 

No, wait. did I say strange? I meant typical, obvious and predictable