add heywood Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 've thought about this before aswell. If you bought all possible combinations (14 million) then surely 1 person putting that amount of money would substantially increase the jackpot anyway? Also you would not just win the jackpot, but also win 5 numbers and the bonus ball 6 times, 5 numbers x amount of times etc... I wonder how much you would actually recieve from all the other winning combinations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lbm Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 've thought about this before aswell. If you bought all possible combinations (14 million) then surely 1 person putting that amount of money would substantially increase the jackpot anyway? Also you would not just win the jackpot, but also win 5 numbers and the bonus ball 6 times, 5 numbers x amount of times etc... I wonder how much you would actually recieve from all the other winning combinations? And to start with, the Jackpot has to be worth over £14 million, and hopefully 4 or 5 other people don't come up with the winning line too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 've thought about this before aswell. If you bought all possible combinations (14 million) then surely 1 person putting that amount of money would substantially increase the jackpot anyway? Also you would not just win the jackpot, but also win 5 numbers and the bonus ball 6 times, 5 numbers x amount of times etc... I wonder how much you would actually recieve from all the other winning combinations? Apparently, 50% of the £1 your ticket cost goes into the prize fund. The rest is overheads, taxes and the good cause fund. So you'd bulk up the prize fund by ~£7m, which would in turn further increase the prize fund due to the ticket sales buzz a larger than normal jackpot fund (like a rollover) generates. You'd win loads on other prizes too; the amount of tenners you'd come away with would be unreal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caseys Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 You'd win loads on other prizes too; the amount of tenners you'd come away with would be unreal! That'd only be approx 700 combinations - so £7k in £10 wins. Of course you'd win the other combinations quite a bit too, 4 numbers, 5 numbers, 5+ bonus etc. But again as the prize pot is fixed for the larger prizes you'd just be getting a decent percentage of them, rather that a multiple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 That'd only be approx 700 combinations - so £7k in £10 wins. Of course you'd win the other combinations quite a bit too, 4 numbers, 5 numbers, 5+ bonus etc. But again as the prize pot is fixed for the larger prizes you'd just be getting a decent percentage of them, rather that a multiple. Thinking about it more, I doubt having every ticket would reduce the prize for the jackpot that much anyway, as there's only 6 numbers that come out, and the commision must bank of a certain cut each week anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 This is a good site and explains the division of each side of the equation a lot. i.e 2/14 = 1/7 http://www.murderousmaths.co.uk/books/bkmm6xlo.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonathanc Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 This is a good site and explains the division of each side of the equation a lot. i.e 2/14 = 1/7 http://www.murderousmaths.co.uk/books/bkmm6xlo.htm I thought this is basic maths? Anyway, buying more tickets increasings your odds/chances to win but it doesn't affect the probability of winning the lottery. Good read here! In a nutshell, in the end of the day its all down to this thing called luck! A mathematical anomaly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 I thought this is basic maths? For some people, it appears not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schtuv Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Ah - so with one ticket your chances are 1 in 14,000,000, but with two tickets your chances are 1 in 13,999,999, right? You have the same chance of winning on each ticket, but the second ticket represents one less number combination from the winning pool (if you factor in only going for the big prize, assume it's not going to be shared, and some other stuff). You have to calculate each tickets chance of success, individually. Right - got it. It's not going to stop me being part of the work lotto syndicate, though ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonathanc Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Ah - so with one ticket your chances are 1 in 14,000,000, but with two tickets your chances are 1 in 13,999,999, right? You have the same chance of winning on each ticket, but the second ticket represents one less number combination from the winning pool (if you factor in only going for the big prize, assume it's not going to be shared, and some other stuff). You have to calculate each tickets chance of success, individually. Right - got it. It's not going to stop me being part of the work lotto syndicate, though ;-) Spot on and yes being in a syndicate does improve your odds at winning a lot. The downside is of course you would then need to split the winnings which in the end of the day would be roughly the same if you've gone solo depending on your syndicate size. There's still no mathematic solution for pure luck though for whoever wins the lottery. There's no way to compute pure randomness but some do argue that nothing is random, there is always an influencing variable sometimes. Open to debate though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schtuv Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Dunno about that - would it be reasonable to state that; being part of a syndicate gives you a very similar possibility of winning as going it alone, but reduces the time in which a win is possible (although that time would still be huge, and the win split several ways)? Anyway - this goes nowhere towards explaining how Derren Brown listed out the winning lottery numbers that time, on tv :-p lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schtuv Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I always found this a good primer for this sort of maths; calculations behind an infinite number of monkeys with typewriters - http://www.nutters.org/docs/monkeys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonathanc Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 lol nice link mate I'm not really good in maths but I am always intrigued topics such as random numbers and probability. It's sort of a mathematical debate if God exists Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schtuv Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Same here! That, and hoping to make a fast buck, somehow, one day ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supralad Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 The odds are more than 1 in 14million. Anyway thats not what you want to look at, you want to work out the chance on getting 7 correct numbers, which you will find is something in the billions. The lottery is bogus and you really have no chance of winning it. Its a waste of money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevie_b Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Go on then folks, for those of you who've said this is basic, easy stuff, what's the answer? (martini, I reckon you know so perhaps you could hold fire for a bit ). Put your money where your mouth is. I'm happy to put my hand up and say that I do find statistics and probability confusing sometimes. My maths background is more mechanics-based, so stats tends to leave me a bit cold. I believe I know the answer though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 Ah - so with one ticket your chances are 1 in 14,000,000, but with two tickets your chances are 1 in 13,999,999, right? You have the same chance of winning on each ticket, but the second ticket represents one less number combination from the winning pool (if you factor in only going for the big prize, assume it's not going to be shared, and some other stuff). You have to calculate each tickets chance of success, individually. Right - got it. It's not going to stop me being part of the work lotto syndicate, though ;-) No, your chances with 2 tickets are not 1 in 13999999 - you haven't got it. The odds are more than 1 in 14million. . Why? Anyway thats not what you want to look at, you want to work out the chance on getting 7 correct numbers, which you will find is something in the billions. Why 7 numbers? You need to match 6 numbers to get the jackpot. The bonus is not part of the jackpot? When have you ever recieved a lotto ticket with 7 numbers on it? The lottery is bogus and you really have no chance of winning it. Its a waste of money. The lottery is bogus? Someone wins it, there are hundreds of millionaires in this country simply due to the lottery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 Anyway - this goes nowhere towards explaining how Derren Brown listed out the winning lottery numbers that time, on tv :-p lol Split screen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbourner Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Is someone also going to argue that a winning combination of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 will never come up? I love hearing people argue about that Monkeys and typewriters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 Go on then folks, for those of you who've said this is basic, easy stuff, what's the answer? The answer is in the first post - I was playing devil's advocate. It's 1 in 7 million. Think of it this way: If you have two tickets, over 14m draws, you'd expect that both those tickets combinations will have shown up. By the same token, in 7million draws, odds say that one of those tickets will have been drawn. Which is where 1 in 7m comes from. It's not a cert and may not happen, it's just the most likely outcome. It's not a guarantee - obviously. It's just likelyhood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 The answer is in the first post - I was playing devil's advocate. It's 1 in 7 million. Think of it this way: If you have two tickets, over 14m draws, you'd expect that both those tickets combinations will have shown up. By the same token, in 7million draws, odds say that one of those tickets will have been drawn. Which is where 1 in 7m comes from. It's not a cert and may not happen, it's just the most likely outcome. It's not a guarantee - obviously. It's just likelyhood Amazing. You would thought I had wrote exactly that explanation yesterday. Nice to know you needed it explained to you as you didn't have a proper understanding.... only to come back and use the same explanation as if it was yours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Go on then folks, for those of you who've said this is basic, easy stuff, what's the answer? (martini, I reckon you know so perhaps you could hold fire for a bit ). Put your money where your mouth is. I'm happy to put my hand up and say that I do find statistics and probability confusing sometimes. My maths background is more mechanics-based, so stats tends to leave me a bit cold. I believe I know the answer though. Make sure you are discussing odds and not probability there Stevie. 2 very very different arguments. Odds are cut and dry, probability is as grey as it gets unless you go deep into statistical analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlotte Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 It's 6 of 1, half a dozen of the other. Or 6 and two 3s as some say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevie_b Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Make sure you are discussing odds and not probability there Stevie. 2 very very different arguments. Indeed. I think that was part of the problem of this thread: people were using odds, chances, and probability interchangeably. 1 in 7 million is the probability of winning the jackpot with 2 dissimilar tickets, whereas 2 : 13,999,998 are the odds of winning it (assuming there are exactly 14 million combinations, which I know isn't quite right but let's assume there are). Probability = (Chances for)/(Total chances) Odds are (Chances for) : (Chances against) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soop Dogg Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 That'd only be approx 700 combinations - so £7k in £10 wins. That's not right. If all combinations of the 6 numbers are sold once each, then there would be 246,820 permutations of any 3 numbers available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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