Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 For simplicity, the odds of winning the Lotto jackpot in the UK are 1 in 14m if you have a single ticket. At work, I've had a discussion with some of my colleagues about the odds if you have two tickets. The way I see it, if you have 2 tickets, your odds of winning the lottery are 2 in 14m - Or, 1 in 7m. Some people see it like I do, but most say the odds wouldn’t be that. The 1 in 7 million is the key factor here, it's what most can't see. What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamesy Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 i'd say its still 14m/1 you just have 2 tickets that are both 14m/1 like if you bought 14m tickets you wouldn't be gauranteed a jackpot win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 I'd say 2 in 14 million not 1 in 7 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Havard Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 I'd say 2 in 14 million not 1 in 7 million. What is the difference? In betting the odds are always simplified and therefore 1 in 7 million sounds about right.... H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 i'd say its still 14m/1 you just have 2 tickets that are both 14m/1 like if you bought 14m tickets you wouldn't be gauranteed a jackpot win If you bought 14m different tickets (all combinations), you'd win the Jackpot guaranteed. I'd say 2 in 14 million not 1 in 7 million. 2 in 14 is the same as 1 in 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsween Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 I cant believe this was actually a discussion......... Simple mathematics it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 Ah ok well then I'd say you'd have 2 tickets with a 1 in 14 million chance of winning each not 1 in 7m. Let's put together as a club and buy 14 million tickets and see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewOW Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 It doesn't matter how many tickets you have, unless you buy 14 million each week, the chances are you'll still not win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Havard Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 I cant believe this was actually a discussion......... Simple mathematics it is It's great to watch simpletons scratching their heads though... H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 I cant believe this was actually a discussion......... Simple mathematics it is That's what I thought. But with the amount of intellectuals that are doubting it, i thought I'd share. The thing is, my boss laughed when I suggested it was 1 in 7m So I knocked him clean out.. JOKE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 It doesn't matter how many tickets you have, unless you buy 14 million each week, the chances are you'll still not win! If you had over 7 million, the odds are you will win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 I did a calucation a while ago about whether if would be possible to make sure you won the Jackpot the lottery. Basically, it would involve knowing that the jackpot was a roll over (over 14 million in the kitty). So then you would have a week to get hold of every combination - which would be impossible. If you could do it however, there would always be the risk of having to share the jackpot with someone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsween Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 Just because the numbers are big doesn't mean that they are any different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 Yeah it's really easy to calculate the number of combinations for the chance in winning 49x48x47x46x45x44 to get a biiiiiiiig number and then divide by 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 as the order isn't significant. Comes out at 13983816. £14m jackpot and you're indeed guaranteed to win but someone else will have the same numbers and you'll lose out haha But yes, to the point - stupid people are stupid. 1/7 not being the same as 2/14. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 Just because the numbers are big doesn't mean that they are any different. That was another thing when I suggested talking in simpler terms i.e. 1 in 10 chance. Some wanted to discard that because it wasn't the actual chances of winning the lottery - like it matters! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 If you have 2 tickets in the national lottery, and the odds of winning with a single ticket are 14 million to 1 (I thought it was 16 million), then the odds of winning it are 7 to 1. It actually is that simple. If you want to get them scratching their heads tell them that winning with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 is exactly the same odds as any other random set of numbers. Where it gets twisty is where you tell them the probability isn't the same though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedrosixfour Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 I did a calucation a while ago about whether if would be possible to make sure you won the Jackpot the lottery. Basically, it would involve knowing that the jackpot was a roll over (over 14 million in the kitty). So then you would have a week to get hold of every combination - which would be impossible. If you could do it however, there would always be the risk of having to share the jackpot with someone else. That was done in Ireland a few years back. Every possible 6 number comination of the (at the time) 36 numbers available was played by a group of about 20 people. They won it alright. Trouble is they had to share the winnings with a second winning ticket. And they were forced to pay capital gains tax on their half of the winnings because it was no longer considered gambling as they were assured of winning. Ended up costing them a tidy packet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 (I thought it was 16 million) The actual figure is 13,983,816 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 That was done in Ireland a few years back. Every possible 6 number comination of the (at the time) 36 numbers available was played by a group of about 20 people. They won it alright. Trouble is they had to share the winnings with a second winning ticket. And they were forced to pay capital gains tax on their half of the winnings because it was no longer considered gambling as they were assured of winning. Ended up costing them a tidy packet! Bummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marc_p Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 I'd say 2 in 14 million not 1 in 7 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caseys Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 Is someone also going to argue that a winning combination of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 will never come up? I love hearing people argue about that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 I cant believe this was actually a discussion......... Indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 Is someone also going to argue that a winning combination of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 will never come up? I love hearing people argue about that Probability says it will never happen. The odds say it will have just as much chance as any other set of numbers. It's the same as the same set of numbers coming up again. The odds are exactly the same every week, but the probability of it happening..... Very complex maths to work out true probability. It's way over my head for my basic understanding of it all. I had someone work out the odds on guessing the colours of all the cards in a deck, muck like the equation on the lottery, he then showed me the probability of it happening with a crazy equation... that I could follow but not understand... and the figure had about 9 zeros lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 Probability says it will never happen. The odds say it will have just as much chance as any other set of numbers. No, the probability says it will happen, given enough time Probability = (Chances for)/(Total chances) Whereas odds are... (Chances for) : (Chances against) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted November 1, 2010 Share Posted November 1, 2010 No, the probability says it will happen, given enough time Probability = (Chances for)/(Total chances) Whereas odds are... (Chances for) : (Chances against) You're winding me up. I understand the simple way of calculating probability Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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