martini Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Again I do not have a personal opinion on it but my mind tells me that human induced warming is like pissing in an ocean... ...how accurate is the global warming science? Multics, the first part of the quote sounds a bit like an opinion to me I'll address the second part of the quote as it's actually quite pertinent. Measurements of global CO2 levels have been measured since 1959 at a base station in Hawaii. This has shown a steady increase. Before this, we have to use proxy measurements from records such as ice-cap data - because we cannot measure the past. All we can do is measure the future; something which surely everyone would agree is a good idea. Whilst weather forcasting is far from perfect and is incredibly easy to diss, it's actually extremely advanced for what it is. If we take parallels and look at something like biology, that has been studied in more depth, for centuries than cloud formation etc... we have a much higher level of understanding on how the weather changes. As for climate science - that's a larger scale than weather. In order to predict something, we need as much data as is possible. But that's all it is and can ever be - a prediction. We'll never solve everything, but an approximation is better than nothing. This brings me onto my final point; science. A scientist will take measurements and try to understand them and explain them using the best techniques at his disposal. Remember that gravity is a theory. Relativity is a theory. They are consistent with measured data and the interpretation cannot be proved to be false. This is the current state of the theory of Global Warming. It's a theory. In a nut shell, CO2 levels are going up. The average temperature is increasing. If we just look at these two facts, there's no logical reason to say that it won't stop and the seas will boil and the land burn.... but we have more data... more to interpret. It's policy makers that try to spin this for economical and political gains. A true scientist doesn't care about that. For example, if it turns out that my research proves that there is no Global Warming, and there are no holes in the argument, it would undoubtedly be published in the journal Nature or Science (recommended reads) and I would end up having a theory with my name on it or something (I wish). Scientists have no agenda. There may be some bad apples but they are usually weeded out. I don't believe in God because there is no evidence there is a God. I don't like hearing people say they "believe" in Global Warming (or not). It's not a belief. There is plain scientific fact - it's happening. We're trying to see how bad it's going to get... will we all be ok? Will there be an ice age next year? The governments around the world are obviously throwing a lot of money at this, trying to find out, but at least it's better than a military budget! Fact of the matter is, we do not know what is going to happen and are basing current theory on measurements taken from all around the world going back thousands of years. It's up there with some pretty good theories! If we find out that it all balances - there will obviously be a major release from the scientific community on the matter. Until then, it's going to be full of people with opinions. Oops, another long one! /vbb/images/smilies/bbcode_oops.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formatzero Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 I hope were warming up rather than cooling down,i believe the last time it cooled down it was a bit chilly up here in scotland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 I hope were warming up rather than cooling down,i believe the last time it cooled down it was a bit chilly up here in scotland That's the thing... Global Warming also just means a global warming (of average temperatures) of climate (not weather). On the local scale; there's absolutely scope for hail, snow and freezing winters (because the tropics will heat up during their summer driving convection even more than normal). Expect heatwaves, hail and all sorts of crazy weather! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathew Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 what was that little climate changing episode a few years back called again?......oh yeah thats it the ice age. that alone shows that with or without man's input the climate will change. its all a sham to extract more money out of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guigsy Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/04/FSM_Pirates.png With the increase of priating we have seen this year (namely the somali ones) and them being killed by the Navy Seals, now we have a heatwave... coincidence? I THINK NOT! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benkei Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/04/FSM_Pirates.png With the increase of priating we have seen this year (namely the somali ones) and them being killed by the Navy Seals, now we have a heatwave... coincidence? I THINK NOT! I was wondering when this would pop up! Will the climate start to cool again soon? As there are increasing numbers of pirates lately. Not the cheerful ones with big beards and parrots, but nasty ones with machine guns! On a serious note, I like you martini, you have a good, down to earth, unbiased approach to the whole thing, it's good to see. I hope you do find something significant and are able to put your name to it in the future Now I'm a firm belive in that humans have not, aren't, and never will affect the climate in such a dramatic way. Obviously we contribute a small amount, but let me put it like this... If you've ever had a window seat on a plane and looked out, you'll suddenly come to realise how SMALL and utterly insignificant you are in comparrison to the Earth. And how burning a few gasses, or burning some petrol in your car will make the ENTIRE planet's climate change so dramitically, suddenly seems ridiculous! Look at how much of the planet is unpopulated or inhabitable. Most of the planet is water too. Not to mention how LONG the planet has been here, with volcanos errupting, forrest fires, cows farting, corpses and vegetation rotting, and other non-human contributions to natural gasses in the atmosphere... WE suddenly outweighed that? Now this is just me thinking and what my mind puts together as 'logic' in my head. I may very well be completely wrong, I could be on to something, or it may not make any sense to anyone other than myself.. Ether way, this is how I see it. And if/when 'climate change' is seen as a money grabbing illusion created by the government... Wll we get a refund for all this 'green tax', increased road tax, recycling tax, etc. that we've had to fork out?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 I don't know the only charts I've seen are of world population, like this one: http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/W/WorldBank.gif And this one: http://www.susps.org/images/worldpopgr.gif Whatever is decided to stop population growth (and something will NEED to be decided at some point, unless we terrorform Mars pretty quick!) will undoubtedly cause problems in other areas, as you say average age increasing putting pressure on several groups etc. I still think every human should be allowed 0.75 children in their lifetime (until the problem is resolved), so couples can have 1.5 children, creating a market for their 'other halves' whereby people who have more money can buy the right to have a 2nd child, and poorer people can sell their right to half a child to support child #1. Interesting graphs. When was the first global census? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supraGZaerotop Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 the earth is suppose to be going thru a cooling cycle anyway, every so many hundred years the earth goes thru a sort of ice age period, the last one was bout 500years ago, so we are suppose to be cooling down, watched a program on it the other month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lbm Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 Just wondering if Tannhauser is away on holiday, as this kind of thread normally lures him in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 Maybe the heat combined with his tinfoil hat and cooked his brain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 On a serious note, I like you martini, you have a good, down to earth, unbiased approach to the whole thing, it's good to see. I hope you do find something significant and are able to put your name to it in the future [/Quote] Cheers dude Now I'm a firm belive in that humans have not, aren't, and never will affect the climate in such a dramatic way. Obviously we contribute a small amount, but let me put it like this... If you've ever had a window seat on a plane and looked out, you'll suddenly come to realise how SMALL and utterly insignificant you are in comparrison to the Earth. And how burning a few gasses, or burning some petrol in your car will make the ENTIRE planet's climate change so dramitically, suddenly seems ridiculous! Look at how much of the planet is unpopulated or inhabitable. Most of the planet is water too. Not to mention how LONG the planet has been here, with volcanos errupting, forrest fires, cows farting, corpses and vegetation rotting, and other non-human contributions to natural gasses in the atmosphere... WE suddenly outweighed that? The thing is, unless you measure something and report that measurement; or come up with a theory, saying that because one person is so small compared the the size of the Earth that they have little effect is just opinion and not scientifically driven. Scale up this effect, a few billion people... Anyway, here's a couple of images How can that have no effect? There's more than one of those Man is so insignificant? China's smog: http://slattern23.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/smog_in_china.jpg http://idisk.me.com/martinirwin/Public/Pictures/Skitch/skitched-20090706-143822.jpg The lights, the powerstations, the pollution and smog would simply not be there without humans. There are obviously many natural events also occuring, but there are far more anthropogenic (man-made) events. "The Planet's history did not begin with the human species and it will not end when we have left for other realms." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Anyway, here's a couple of images They're cooling towers, that's just water vapour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Havard Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Martini, on the basis of your answers in this thread I have just accepted your friends request of 3 weeks ago..... Just wanted to work out if you were wierd or not..... H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 They're cooling towers, that's just water vapour. Ah, someone took a bite! "Just" water vapour? That's my Ph.D By increasing the amount clouds directly, there is direct human influence on the reflectivity of the Earth as viewed from the Sun and thus the total amount of radiation reaching the surface. The location of these clouds relative to the ground/water below or the dust and pollution layers above and below will either cool or warm the Earth. There are higher levels of cloud, more pollution (such as China) which trap the energy in the boundary layer... it is all very complex hence the lack of certainty in how bad the measured warming is going to be (in 50/100 years or so). Just wanted to work out if you were wierd or not..... Awesome. I judged you rather quickly and decided you were worthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 So the shade that these clouds creates reflects the sun from the earth and causes something to happen...? or there is more than just water in the vapour? I'm pretty sure it is just water? they burn coal, they heat water, they push the steam through a turbine and make electricity, and then they let the left over steam go....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Awesome. I judged you rather quickly and decided you were worthy :taped: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Havard Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 :taped: Early impressions can be misleading eh Mike?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 So the shade that these clouds creates reflects the sun from the earth and causes something to happen...? or there is more than just water in the vapour? I'm pretty sure it is just water? No, you're wrong and right. Those cooling towers to essentially only emit water vapour which condenses immediately onto particles in the air; essentially man-made clouds. Depending on the droplet size within a cloud, the radiation from the Sun is scattered differently. Those large, bright white fluffy clouds are made of larger drops which reflect more - hence appearing whiter. The ones over China are much darker due to the size of the droplets... http://idisk.me.com/martinirwin/Public/Pictures/Skitch/clouds-20090706-145659.jpg Also, over which surface the aerosol or cloud layer is above will result in difference amounts reaching the surface compared to if it wasn't there.... i.e. (from my Second Year Transfer Report) http://idisk.me.com/martinirwin/Public/Pictures/Skitch/direct-20090706-150040.jpg Above the cloud/snow, the aerosol is darker... making the snow (or cloud top) have a net absorbance compared to how it was before that layer. Conversely, the Sea is now "brighter" and reflects more back to space... so if you covered the sea with a layer of cloud, the Earth would reflect almost all of the radiation from the Sun (this is why the ice-age has a runaway effect; the more ice you get, the more reflectivity you have, so the cooler it gets, so the more ice you get... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Early impressions can be misleading eh Mike?? You must have either said something I liked, have a car I liked, or I have the wrong person in my contacts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermit Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 It's only one tree. http://www.kilbelinlandscaping.com/images/tree1.jpg Oops! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 I would like to clarify that tree-huggers and busy-body protesters piss me off just as much as they do most people. But so do people that claim that it's impossible for man to have an impact... yet we clearly do! It's only to our own detriment. We are the only dasein. I am a scientist through and through. I will measure and report the findings - for no political gains (though my mum keeps telling me I should be a politicial - maybe that's just so I can claim a second home for her). I mean, check my sig... And I will go TT or single when I can Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Havard Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 You must have either said something I liked, have a car I liked, or I have the wrong person in my contacts! Just a wild guess but I'm betting on a moment of "comic genius"..!! H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbourner Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 The Prime Minister also hailed moves - agreed at the summit of G8 nations in Italy - to prevent global temperatures rising by more than 2C. From: http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/G8-In-LAquila-Italy-Gordon-Brown-Hails-Historic-Agreement-To-Cut-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-By-80/Article/200907215332964?lpos=World_News_News_Your_Way_Region_4&lid=NewsYourWay_ARTICLE_15332964_G8_In_LAquila%2C_Italy%3A_Gordon_Brown_Hails_Historic_Agreement_To_Cut_Greenhouse_Gas_Emissions_By_80%25 Isn't that a bold claim if it actually turns out NOT to be anything to do with humans? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Isn't that a bold claim if it actually turns out NOT to be anything to do with humans? The sudden increase in temperatures in the past 200 odd years has essentially been agreed to be due to humans and the industrial revolution. It's far outside of previous rates of change and expected cycles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Multics Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 The sudden increase in temperatures in the past 200 odd years has essentially been agreed to be due to humans and the industrial revolution. It's far outside of previous rates of change and expected cycles. Is this the only factor in the cause and effect type of analysis? Is there not one other factor that has influenced climate and how certain can we (you) be about that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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