Matt H Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 1/1, i'll take those odds and bet £50 please I'll take you up on that. 1 to 1 odds. Please paypal me the money. If someone misses a flight that crashes and kills the occupents, and that same person then dies in a car crash i will give you your £50 back. otherwise i keep it. Shall we say a 20 year time limit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyP Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_chances_of_being_killed_in_a_plane_crash http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_chances_of_dying_in_a_car_accident Does anyone care to work this out? Doesn't really work like that because you can't be killed in both! What you need is the odds of missing a plane which then subsequently crashes with no survivors. Might be a bit tricky finding that information though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guigsy Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 you could be driving a car in a plane... Going a bit off topic now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 I'll take you up on that. 1 to 1 odds. Please paypal me the money. If someone misses a flight that crashes and kills the occupents, and that same person then dies in a car crash i will give you your £50 back. otherwise i keep it. Shall we say a 20 year time limit you could be driving a car in a plane... Going a bit off topic now On a treadmill!!! ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 my last post on this subject. As i said, its a massive can of worms. It's not really, it's quite simple. Actual probability of a multiple try outcome is far far more complex. I was on the wrong side of this argument the last time.I think that phrase above is where you're going wrong. There is no a "multiple try" in this 501st coin toss example. After 500 consecutive "Heads" there is only one 501st flip of the coin, and the odds of that flip landing heads or tails are exactly the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 It's not really, it's quite simple. I think that phrase above is where you're going wrong. There is no a "multiple try" in this 501st coin toss example. After 500 consecutive "Heads" there is only one 501st flip of the coin, and the odds of that flip landing heads or tails are exactly the same. Again, i stress, odds are the same... probability is different. Its like winning the lottery 2 weeks in a row with the same numbers. The odds for both weeks are the same, the probability is different. For example. The odds of tossing a coin 10 times and landing on heads is different from the odds of tossing a coin and landing on heads after it landing on heads 9 times. Where we are getting wires crossed is that probability is different again. My understanding of probability in a 2 outcome situation is 1/2 the odds in the same situation is 1/1. That is the simplest form of working it out, as i said there is a MUCH more complicated forumula than that, unfortunately, i don't have the education or true understanding to explain it. I know i said i wouldn't reply but i think its only fair to get this wrapped up. How about we agree to disagree? I had this argument over a space of weeks and i had exactly the same thinking as yourself. I couldn't get my head round odds and probability being 2 different things, especially when it came to multiple outcomes, but they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Again, i stress, odds are the same... The odds of tossing a coin 10 times and landing on heads is different Make Yer mind up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Make Yer mind up Read the bits you didn't quote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexsum Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 My understanding of probability in a 2 outcome situation is 1/2 the odds in the same situation is 1/1. That is the simplest form of working it out, as i said there is a MUCH more complicated forumula than that You (& others) are confusing bookies odds which should be represented as a ratio ( ie 1:1) and maths odds which are same as probability. Bookies odds are man made and normally factor in educated guesswork but always favour the bookies. eg (of favour) roulette has evens on red or black (1:1) but the extra green 0 means long term the house wins as the true odds or probability is less than 1/2. [0.486 in UK lower still in US as they have a 00 too] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 You (& others) are confusing bookies odds which should be represented as a ratio ( ie 1:1) and maths odds which are same as probability. Bookies odds are man made and normally factor in educated guesswork but always favour the bookies. eg (of favour) roulette has evens on red or black (1:1) but the extra green 0 means long term the house wins as the true odds or probability is less than 1/2. [0.486 in UK lower still in US as they have a 00 too] I don't know anything about bookies odds. I'm talking about from school. Probability is based on the chosen outcome divided by the amount of potential outcomes. With tossing a coin that is 1/2. Odds is calculated as the amount of potential winning outcomes divided by the amount of potential losing outcomes. With tossing a coin that is 1/1. I'll say it again though, that is my basic understanding of probability and odds. This is not a true representation of how probability is calculated when you get into the maths of it properly. Its something insane that i can't remember and couldn't really understsand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexsum Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 I don't know anything about bookies odds. I'm talking about from school. Probability is based on the chosen outcome divided by the amount of potential outcomes. With tossing a coin that is 1/2. Odds is calculated as the amount of potential winning outcomes divided by the amount of potential losing outcomes. With tossing a coin that is 1/1. I'll say it again though, that is my basic understanding of probability and odds. This is not a true representation of how probability is calculated when you get into the maths of it properly. Its something insane that i can't remember and couldn't really understsand. OK but you are using the wrong expressions; odds are expressed with a colon [:] not a divisor (/) the reason for using different expressions is to avoid SUCH confusion. probability in your example is 1/2, odds are 1:1 both have same 'value' just different expression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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