jamesmark Posted June 11, 2009 Author Share Posted June 11, 2009 It has a deciding factor, that is if the plane actually takes off from the treadmill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Headroom Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 If you have any debts, pay them off, its worth more Boring I know, but in the current climate the best thing to do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 Well done James/Mark, at least someone I vaguely know has managed to get anything more than a few quid from the lottery Massive can-o-worms for anyone "into" math Yeah, I tried explaining Probability to many people over the years but very, very few seem to be able to grasp it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesmark Posted June 11, 2009 Author Share Posted June 11, 2009 If you have any debts, pay them off, its worth more Boring I know, but in the current climate the best thing to do That is exactly wyat I am using it for, Will more than 1/2 my OB with M&S card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl_S Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Gambling never pays Mark. Congrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Headroom Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Gambling never pays Mark. Congrats. Obviously it has !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveC Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Shouldn't the begging letters be given priority in front of paying off debts? ...by the way, is PM ok for the sob story? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexsum Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 It's not. Regardless of whether a chance occurrence (500 heads in your example) has happened the odds/chance/probabilty of it landing on tails the next time is still evens. Yeah that. Probability of coin being tails is 0.5 as there are only two outcomes (actually there is the third 'on it's edge' outcome but if you ignore that) It does not change depending on prior results and the event or coin has no memory. It is human programming to try and see a pattern and attach weight to it. The exploitation of the human weakness can be seen everywhere especially vegas! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt H Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Congrat. I've only ever won 1 tenner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 It's not. Regardless of whether a chance occurrence (500 heads in your example) has happened the odds/chance/probabilty of it landing on tails the next time is still evens. my last post on this subject. As i said, its a massive can of worms. At school to higher level we are taught simple probability calculations. Actual probability of a multiple try outcome is far far more complex. I was on the wrong side of this argument the last time. The can of worms was opened on a magic forum i was on, where i was of the same opinion of you guys until it was explained to me. If someone wants to explain it all on here then great, if not it certainly won't be me. The example used on the forum was the odds of turning over 26 red cards in a deck of 52 vs the probability of the same outcome. I knew the formula for the odds but the probability one was just insane. Even in its simplest terms odds are still different to probability. With the coin example the odds are 1 over one, the probability is 1 over 2. You can argue or disagree all you like. From the answers being given you are not qualified to argue and i am not qualified to explain. Perhaps homer is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 you got that 20 quid you owe me now then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathew Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 my last post on this subject. As i said, its a massive can of worms. At school to higher level we are taught simple probability calculations. Actual probability of a multiple try outcome is far far more complex. I was on the wrong side of this argument the last time. The can of worms was opened on a magic forum i was on, where i was of the same opinion of you guys until it was explained to me. If someone wants to explain it all on here then great, if not it certainly won't be me. The example used on the forum was the odds of turning over 26 red cards in a deck of 52 vs the probability of the same outcome. I knew the formula for the odds but the probability one was just insane. Even in its simplest terms odds are still different to probability. With the coin example the odds are 1 over one, the probability is 1 over 2. You can argue or disagree all you like. From the answers being given you are not qualified to argue and i am not qualified to explain. Perhaps homer is. so if you were a bookies and tossed a coin 500 times (and it was heads every time)and then went to take bets off people what odds would you offer them on it landing on heads or tails on the 501st flip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martini Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Let's say you have 5 coin tosses (or 5 coins). One coin has 2 outcomes. With 5 coins, there are 32 possible outcomes ( = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 2^5) Of these, 1 outcome has 5 heads from 5 tosses. Therefore the probability of this is 1/32 or 3% (rounded). With 51 coin tosses, there are 2251799813685248 possible outcomes. Click me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyP Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 so if you were a bookies and tossed a coin 500 times (and it was heads every time)and then went to take bets off people what odds would you offer them on it landing on heads or tails on the 501st flip? 4/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon F Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 4/5 111.1% book. I've seen worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedM Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Where's Digsy or Tannhauser? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lbm Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 While we're on the subject, what are the chances of this...? http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6479203.ece Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Konrad Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 While we're on the subject, what are the chances of this...? http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6479203.ece Final Destination? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyP Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 While we're on the subject, what are the chances of this...? http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6479203.ece it's a strange old world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lbm Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Final Destination? I know That's the first thing my GF said when seeing this. it's a strange old world. Indeedy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burna Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 She knew too much and had to go No such thing as fate, things just happen. Oh and congrats Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexsum Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 While we're on the subject, what are the chances of this...? http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6479203.ece i'd say probability of 1 (or 1/1) (-as it has happened) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lbm Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 i'd say probability of 1 (or 1/1) (-as it has happened) Fair comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 1/1, i'll take those odds and bet £50 please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lbm Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_chances_of_being_killed_in_a_plane_crash http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_chances_of_dying_in_a_car_accident Does anyone care to work this out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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