Alex Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Is now a good time to buy? Does anyone think there is still a chance the weakest banks (which long term could see the individual making the most profit from) are still at risk of nationalisation? I'd like to get some RBS/Lloyds/Barclays and just wait for them to go up over time (no big instant win required just dividends and a fair rise in price over a few years)...but I had some Northern Rock and that didn't get me far! Opinions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ark Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Penny sweets. They cost more than a penny now - guaranteed rise. Bank shares, you're on a loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stratty Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Big institutions would be a good bet. RBS, Barclays and Lloyds would be the pick of the bunch but tbh I don think RBS would be a good buy right now. You may not receive much in the way of dividends in the short term but it's a buyers market across the board at the moment. Make sure you do your research before you jump in. Have a good look an the annual figures and future events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevie_b Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Personally, I wouldn't just yet. We still don't know which (if any) of the banks the govt will need to take wholly into public ownership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveR Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Buy bank shares? Tell me another! Note that the government just passed legislation so they don't need to tell to public any more when a bank asks for financial help, how much it's asked for, why, and how much they're being bailed out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colsoop Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Haven't they insured themselves (the banks) against any future huge losses ? If thats the case then i can see them as a good buy for long term growth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewie Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Do not buy any bank shares. Many will get nationalised and then you've had it. The best thing to do is sit back and wait - YEARS! Guidelines and regulations will be in place to control the banking industry from irresponsible lending. The government will float the banks to get back the money it used to bail them out. That's when you buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveR Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Haven't they insured themselves (the banks) against any future huge losses ? Who with? AIG? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stratty Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Do not buy any bank shares. Many will get nationalised and then you've had it. The best thing to do is sit back and wait - YEARS! Guidelines and regulations will be in place to control the banking industry from irresponsible lending. The government will float the banks to get back the money it used to bail them out. That's when you buy. That will be too late. It is wiser to buy prior to them issuing new shares as existing shareholders will have the option to buy new shares through a priority offer for a lesser amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colsoop Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Who with? AIG? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewie Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 That will be too late. It is wiser to buy prior to them issuing new shares as existing shareholders will have the option to buy new shares through a priority offer for a lesser amount. So you recommend buying now, then let the bank get nationalised and all share dealings getting frozen? Not too sure that's a good idea. Are you some kind of merchant banker? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 You see I now think this could be the time to strike, the govt. are insuring the worst debts, the banks have disclosed their losses/profits (Lloyds still made a profit!). This all *should* stabilize them and the insurance companies that had insured the debt before like Aviva, The Pru etc.... So i'm thinking that certainly come April it will be time to invest for the long term (especially the insurance companies). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soop Dogg Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 I wouldn't touch the banks at the moment, TBH as there's too much uncovered bad debt that hasn't been counted up yet. Securitisation got too complex for it's own good and trying to unpick just what was wrapped up as 'AAA'-rated packages might take years. Insurance companies are very cyclic at the moment and there's a major amount of money to be made if you time your deals right. Take Aviva. On 12th January, if you had 3,000 shares, you could've sold them at £4.35 a share and got about £13k in your pocket. By 23rd January, you could've bought back in at only £2.64 per share. If you decided NOT to take the profit and use all of your £13k to buy back in, you'd have bought 4,924 shares. Then on 9th Feb, you could've sold them for £4.08. This time you'd have put a little under £20,100 in your pocket. Last Tuesday (24th) they were at £2.72 again! Your cash would've bought you 7,385 shares. So, today you'd be sitting with almost 2.5 times the holding you had 6 weeks ago. If you sat on those until they hit at least £4, they'd give up over £29,500. At just £4.10 the'd be worth over £30k. (!!) But, as I say, you'd have to time it just right. You really need to study a stock and see the range in which it is operating. Then decide on your sell and buy prices and stick to them. You might then be working within a 10 to 15% buffer of the highs and lows, but you'll make good money. The whole insurance sector is following an almost identical trend. Prudential swings are even greater than Aviva, Admiral much less. Maybe spread your money across a number of companies if this is the sector you want to invest in. Banks aren't for me at the moment. You could lose all of an investment. Plus Lloyds are probably going to issue more shares which will only serve to devalue the price of each share as the company isn't suddenly going to be worth more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soop Dogg Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 That will be too late. It is wiser to buy prior to them issuing new shares as existing shareholders will have the option to buy new shares through a priority offer for a lesser amount. RBS tried that. (I'm a shareholder) By the time the letters came out offering us the 'discount', I could've bought them for about 15% cheaper on the open market! Now they're worth less than 1/2 of what I paid. Fortunately, I only invested a very small amount as 'play' money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caseys Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 And why just look at UK Banks? Admittedly they are volitile, but could be seen as you say for long term dividends. Tech sector ones are quite risky atm from the looks of it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozz Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Banks are a great investment IMO, I bought RBS at 20p, LLOY at 58p and BARC at 58p, making a nice profit out of them. I would still buy at the current price as a longer term investment (couple of years) just on what I can afford to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soop Dogg Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 I'm afraid I don't really go with the whole 'buy now and hope the price goes up in X years' thing. Eventually things can fall again even in the long term. Look at all those people with ISA's and stocks from years back that are today worth less than when they started investing in them. Look at all those people investing in companies like GM. In Feb 1978, GM stock was worth over $24 a share. Today it's trading at $2.15 - less than 10% of what it was worth 31 years ago. (It peaked in 2000 at over $88 a share) Ijust look at patterns of how far certain stocks are rising and falling around an average price. That way, if I think a stock is relatively high today, I'll sell it and buy it (or another stock) back when it's relatively low. I can choose whether to pocket the difference or to reinvest it. Generally I'll do the latter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozz Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 I'm afraid I don't really go with the whole 'buy now and hope the price goes up in X years' thing. Eventually things can fall again even in the long term. Look at all those people with ISA's and stocks from years back that are today worth less than when they started investing in them. Look at all those people investing in companies like GM. In Feb 1978, GM stock was worth over $24 a share. Today it's trading at $2.15 - less than 10% of what it was worth 31 years ago. (It peaked in 2000 at over $88 a share) Ijust look at patterns of how far certain stocks are rising and falling around an average price. That way, if I think a stock is relatively high today, I'll sell it and buy it (or another stock) back when it's relatively low. I can choose whether to pocket the difference or to reinvest it. Generally I'll do the latter. I see it as a pure gamble but if you look at the average value of the bank shares last summer, and *assuming* if it even hits a small percentage that would be a big earner. I doubled out on some barc shares, buying at 58 and selling at 110 (not quite double). I've hung onto a lot of bank shares, a good percentage of those FOC from my early barc gains. Spreading the risk between a few banks helps as its unlikely they will all go under, it only needs one to recover anywhere near the old levels to get my money back and a lot more. With interest rates so low I don't see any other method of getting a decent return on cash. I am looking for non-banking shares though to spread the risk further, any ideas? I do invest in mining as I know the companies involved but they are high cost. Another thing worth considering, barc is possibly paying dividends this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soop Dogg Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 I see it as a pure gamble but if you look at the average value of the bank shares last summer, and *assuming* if it even hits a small percentage that would be a big earner. I doubled out on some barc shares, buying at 58 and selling at 110 (not quite double). I've hung onto a lot of bank shares, a good percentage of those FOC from my early barc gains. Spreading the risk between a few banks helps as its unlikely they will all go under, it only needs one to recover anywhere near the old levels to get my money back and a lot more. With interest rates so low I don't see any other method of getting a decent return on cash. I am looking for non-banking shares though to spread the risk further, any ideas? I do invest in mining as I know the companies involved but they are high cost. Another thing worth considering, barc is possibly paying dividends this year. I'm afraid I kind of keep to the insurance sector as it tends to track the stock market as a whole very closely. I did buy some mining shares recently, a little Anglo/Russian company called Aricom. I bought at 8p a share, and about 3 months later Hambro made an offer for them and they were suddenly worth 30p a share. I no longer own those shares. I'm also looking at a little company that makes crystaline wafers for solar panels. (PV Crystalox Solar) Currently they're about 85p a share, but do tend to rise to about £1 to £1.05 quite regularly. Long term they're a good bet as in a recession, nobody has the money to think about things like green issues, so the share price falls. Once the recession is over, they'll rise back towards the £2 a share they have been at in the past. Plus they have a number of 5 year deals that they've signed in the past 6 months that ensures they'll have orders at a fixed price on their books until at least 2014. Not massive short term gains to be made, and not one to get too over involved with as they're a small company, but worth starting with maybe £500 and seeing how far you can grow your holding, then bail out when they reach £1.10 or more as they did recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Well, Aviva dropped to 180p today from ~280p so I set up 2 buy orders for £500 a pop at 225p and 200p as it was decending...I thought I was being mean with 200p...looks like I should have been even meaner! They are back to 208p now so that's 8p up LOL (on 1 order). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soop Dogg Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Well, Aviva dropped to 180p today from ~280p so I set up 2 buy orders for £500 a pop at 225p and 200p as it was decending...I thought I was being mean with 200p...looks like I should have been even meaner! They are back to 208p now so that's 8p up LOL (on 1 order). The fall was so fast, I stayed out of it. I might yet average down by buying cheap, but I already have a sh*tload of Aviva shares. This drop was soo steep, it makes me wonder where I'd be if they did an RBS. Could end up with the dividend being more than the share price! I diverted some money into another sector a few weeks back to try and hedge my bets a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Which sectors are you liking most...I want to go after oil/energy but the prices of single shares seem to be a bit steep - need to invest a few k to see any level of return, but when the oil bbl price goes back up (and it will) you should see good returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soop Dogg Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Which sectors are you liking most...I want to go after oil/energy but the prices of single shares seem to be a bit steep - need to invest a few k to see any level of return, but when the oil bbl price goes back up (and it will) you should see good returns. Energy! Yes, the share prices are often high, but some companies like Shell are good long term bets. They're down into the 14's (£ that is) today which for them is a bargain. Most energy stock is not much good as a day-trade though. Long term stuff really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gazboy Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Insurance moves very fast, as Soop Dog points out over a six week period. That's just too fast for me and imo you'd need to be a trader or have time to watch the screens. Also if AIG is wound up they'll take a lot of people with them. We've got shares in Barcley's, at one point thy were worth quite a bit, as of 5pm yesterday they were almost worthless. If you've got some money that you don't mind losing they'd be worth a long term punt as Barcley's will probably be one of the stronger banks for a generation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Energy! Yes, the share prices are often high, but some companies like Shell are good long term bets. They're down into the 14's (£ that is) today which for them is a bargain. Most energy stock is not much good as a day-trade though. Long term stuff really. I'm looking for a longterm set, finance will recover...and so will energy... Building up a few share, £500 at a time...if all works well I can pay for the kitchen with it all next year! If they haven't hit high enough numbers by then, well I'll think again, but this is trading with money that if lost will be a p1sser, not life or death! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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