Kirk Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 I'm guess strappin a plane down to a dyno is outa the picture then Posted via Mobile Device Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 I'm guess strappin a plane down to a dyno is outa the picture then Posted via Mobile Device 80000 HP per engine approx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chilli Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 It's just a case of bad maths though surely? They're simplifying the equation too much. I think you're right there. In reality the odds are the same whether you switch the envelop or swap it, just as you would expect. The paradox is only really a pseudo paradox that seemingly arises from one way it's analysed mathematically. As a loose analogy you could draw a similarity with this plane on a treadmill thing, but in this case the paradox is formed in peoples minds when they combine seemingly everyday phenomena that can be experienced directly (friction, action of treadmills and wheels) with the less everyday action of trust, jet engines and wing lift - naturally this can lead to a seemingly counter-intuitive answer for some people, but armed with only a basic understanding of these things the answer should be pretty obvious. In that sense plane on a treadmill is more transparent than the envelop paradox, which requires an understanding of elementary maths. I'd say there's only a thin resemblance of the two problems though, one is a mathematical bit of jiggery-pokery the other a misunderstanding of the basic physical actions at play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 It's just a case of bad maths though surely? They're simplifying the equation too much. Same thing isn't it? Switching the maths to make it sound like a better choice. Surely after effectively removing one of the choices, sticking with door one or switching to door two both offer a 50% chance of getting the car, it's not 33.3% to stick with door one and 66.7% to switch - it's a new question with new factors, you can't just keep the original question's statistics!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Monty Hall problem makes sense to me. The envelope one seems over simplified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbourner Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Monty Hall problem makes sense to me. The envelope one seems over simplified. It's still wrong, it's based on Monty knowing where the car is. If he didn't then obviously what I said before is true, the odds are the same (but he might open up the door with the car and that wouldn't be very exciting!! ). But Monty knowing where the car is, will always open a goat, so from the very first selection of a door you have a 50/50 chance of selecting the correct door, because a goat will ALWAYS be removed at some point in the future. So in the clip he picked door 1, and says his odds of winning are better if he switches, but what if he'd picked door 2? Monty would still open door 3 and if he switches - by his own rationale - he'd be reducing his odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrRalphMan Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 I'm guess strappin a plane down to a dyno is outa the picture then Posted via Mobile Device 80000 HP per engine approx Ah sooooo worng, the wheels are not driven... Next door's unit does get blown over though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 It's still wrong, it's based on Monty knowing where the car is. If he didn't then obviously what I said before is true, the odds are the same (but he might open up the door with the car and that wouldn't be very exciting!! ). But Monty knowing where the car is, will always open a goat, so from the very first selection of a door you have a 50/50 chance of selecting the correct door, because a goat will ALWAYS be removed at some point in the future. So in the clip he picked door 1, and says his odds of winning are better if he switches, but what if he'd picked door 2? Monty would still open door 3 and if he switches - by his own rationale - he'd be reducing his odds. Yeah i get what ur saying. The comparison of the paradox is a 1 in 3 chance to a 1 in 2 chance. Its always going to be a 1 in 2 chance but its passed off as a 1 in 3 chance giving the 66% chance of winning a prize. You always have a 66% of winning if he always shows you a door regardless of whether you switch or not. I follow that one easier than the envelope one though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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